Wimbledon 2026 | Favorites, injuries and an open draw

Wimbledon 2026 begins at a moment when the tennis season has taken a new turn. Roland Garros has just ended, but instead of simply confirming the existing hierarchy, it has raised even more questions ahead of the transition to grass courts.

Alexander Zverev finally won his first Grand Slam title in Paris, Mirra Andreeva claimed the biggest title of her career, Jannik Sinner suffered a painful physical collapse and Carlos Alcaraz will not compete at Wimbledon due to a wrist injury.

This year’s Wimbledon will be played from June 29 to July 12. The draw has not yet been announced, but June 26 will be important to watch, as the final draws are confirmed three days before the tournament begins. That is when it will become clearer who has truly received an open path and who may face a difficult schedule already in the first week.

ATP picture

In the ATP rankings, Jannik Sinner is first, ahead of Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev. Behind them are Félix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, Alex de Minaur, Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, and Flavio Cobolli. The rankings, however, do not tell the whole story, because the most important change for many sports bettors ahead of Wimbledon is Alcaraz’s absence.

Alcaraz’s withdrawal changes the men’s draw. On grass, he had an almost ideal package: an explosive first step, an aggressive return, versatility, and the ability to turn a point from defense into attack with a single shot.

Without him, Sinner has more room, but no guarantees. His game naturally suits grass because he hits early, flat, and accurately, but his loss to Juan Manuel Cerundolo at Roland Garros, after leading by two sets to love and 5–1 in the third set, raised serious questions about his physical condition. In that match, Sinner struggled with dizziness and a lack of energy, largely due to the high temperatures that did not suit him.

Zverev arrives with a completely different emotion. For the first time in his career, he comes to Wimbledon as a Grand Slam champion after defeating Flavio Cobolli in the Roland Garros final. That does not mean grass is his ideal surface, but it does mean the mental burden is no longer the same. His serve gives him a chance against anyone, although low bounces and rapid changes of direction are not always the most natural fit for his style.

Who has the best chances on grass in the men’s draw?

If pure adaptation to the surface is considered, Sinner remains the most logical favorite. Grass rewards his first strike, composure in rallies, and ability to take control quickly.

Djokovic is a different kind of threat. He may no longer be as physically consistent as before, but at Wimbledon he still possesses the return game, balance, experience and feel for crucial points that make him dangerous even when his form is not perfect.

Fritz has the serve and flat groundstrokes for grass. De Minaur has movement and a low ball trajectory. Shelton has the power to disrupt any opponent’s rhythm, but he still needs to show consistency over two weeks. Medvedev is tactically difficult to face, although his deeper return position can be problematic on grass.

Among the injured and doubtful players, Jack Draper is being watched most closely after withdrawing from Queen’s due to a knee issue and targeting a return in Eastbourne.

WTA overview

On the women’s side, the situation is even more open.

Aryna Sabalenka is first in the WTA rankings, Elena Rybakina is second, Iga Swiatek third, followed by Jessica Pegula, Amanda Anisimova, Mira Andreeva, Coco Gauff, Elina Svitolina, Victoria Mboko, and Karolina Muchova.

Sabalenka is world number one and her power works on every surface, but Rybakina may have the most natural package for grass: a strong serve, a flat forehand, calm aggression and the ability to finish points without overcomplicating them.

Swiatek arrives as the defending champion, which gives her additional weight but also additional pressure. The WTA has confirmed that Swiatek, Rybakina, Marketa Vondrousova, and Barbora Krejcikova are among the former champions in the main draw, while Sabalenka and Gauff are still searching for their first Wimbledon title.

Andreeva, Anisimova, or Gauff as potential champions

Mira Andreeva arrives as the newly crowned Roland Garros champion after defeating Maja Chwalinska 6–3, 6–2. It is a huge achievement, but grass will present a different test. On clay, she was able to construct points, vary the tempo and rely on patience. At Wimbledon, she will have to make decisions faster, protect her serve better, and finish points more quickly.

Anisimova is interesting because she has strokes that can penetrate through grass courts. Gauff has the athleticism and defensive skills, but much will depend on her serve and the stability of her forehand. Pegula is always dangerous when the pace becomes fast and clean, while Muchova has variety, net play, and a natural feel for grass.

The draw can change everything

Wimbledon 2026 appears more open than expected, which will certainly make live betting much more interesting. In the men’s draw, Alcaraz’s absence changes everything. Sinner has the best tennis profile for grass, but he arrives after a concerning defeat in Paris. Zverev has the highest level of confidence of his career. Djokovic, although physically more vulnerable, can never be considered an ordinary contender at Wimbledon.

In the women’s draw, there is no clear hierarchy. Sabalenka is world number one, Rybakina seems the most naturally suited to grass, Swiatek is defending the title and Andreeva arrives with the energy of a new Grand Slam champion.

That is why the draw on June 26 will be particularly important. It can open the path for the favorites, but it can also create first-week matchups between players whose styles are difficult for anyone to handle. Grass often does not forgive a slow start to a tournament, and that is exactly why this year’s Wimbledon has all the elements of a true sporting drama.